In this paper, we investigate the transmission channels of oil price shocks using a factorial survey. We confront CEOs and CFOs of a representative sample of firms with a hypothetical vignette in which the oil price rises exogenously above managers' baseline expectations. The managers then...

This paper studies the dynamic effects of an uncertainty shock on firm expectations. We conduct a survey that confronts managers from a representative firm sample with a model-consistent uncertainty shock scenario. An exogenous increase in uncertainty significantly reduces managers' expected...

This paper studies the dynamic effects of an uncertainty shock on firm expectations. We conduct a survey that confronts managers from a representative firm sample with a model-consistent uncertainty shock scenario. An exogenous increase in uncertainty significantly reduces managers' expected...

We provide new evidence on how ECB's monetary policy decisions affect firms' bank loan expectations in the euro area. We use firm-level data derived from the ECB Survey on the Access to Finance of Enterprises for the period 2009 to 2022 and identify the impact of monetary policy by comparing the...

This paper examines the subjective treatment effects of a negative shock created by the COVID-19 pandemic on the labour market outcomes of young adults in India, Peru, and Vietnam. We leverage subjective counterfactual outcomes at the individual-level that were purposely collected from over...

We provide new evidence on how ECB’s monetary policy decisions affect firms’ bank loan expectations in the euro area. We use firm-level data derived from the ECB Survey on the Access to Finance of Enterprises for the period 2009 to 2022 and identify the impact of monetary policy by comparing...

This paper analyzes the effects of macroeconomic shocks on prices and output at different levels of aggregation using a bottom up approach. We show how to generate firm level impulse responses by incorporating experimental settings into surveys and by exposing firm executives to treatment...

How do global political shocks influence individuals' expectations about economic outcomes? We run a unique survey on inflation expectations among 145 tenured economics professors in Germany and exploit the 2022 Russian invasion in Ukraine as a natural experiment to identify the effect of a...

By providing numerical inflation projections. Many central banks currently face inflation well above their targets and with that the challenge to prevent spillovers on inflation expectations. We study the effect of different communication about the 2021 inflation surge on German consumers'...

This paper presents evidence that inflation expectations, as measured by the Michigan Survey of consumers, only play a minimal role in the propagation of real oil price shocks into inflation. This is despite evidence which confirms inflation expectations are sensitive to real oil price shocks....