We study the relationship between cross border flows and risks to macroeconomic stability for a sample of ten major emerging market economies (EMEs) from 2000-2017 in the presence of external shocks. We examine this relationship with a focus on two key channels of cross border flows, namely...

Long-term interest rates of small open economies correlate strongly with the US long-term rate. Can central banks in those countries decouple from the US? An estimated DSGE model for the UK (vis-`a-vis the US) establishes three structural empirical results. (1) Comovement arises due to nominal...

This paper studies the long-run evolution of bank risk and its links to the macroeconomy. Using data for 17 advanced economies, we show that the riskiness of bank assets declined materially between 1870 and 2016. But even though bank assets have become safer, the losses on these assets are...

Increased globalization over the last two decades has led to strong growth in international business activity and international financial integration. This phenomenon covers a wide array of economic activities, including regional and international integration, investment and trade, international...

In emerging Asia, banks constitute the dominant source of financing consumption and investment, and bank balance sheets comprise large gross FX assets and liabilities. This paper extends the DSGE model of Gertler and Karadi (2011) to incorporate these key features and estimates a panel vector...

Lithuania's current credit cycle highlights the strong link between housing prices and credit. We explore this relationship in more detail by analyzing the main features of credit, housing price, and output cycles in Baltic and Nordic countries during1995-2017. We find a high degree of...

Rising debt can threaten macroeconomic, financial, and fiscal stability, and thus fuels uncertainty among economic agents. Therefore, high levels of indebtedness may hinder economic growth especially for those economies with a large debt burden and may also amplify the volatility of GDP growth...

This paper shows that banks' net foreign currency exposure is an important channel through which exchange rate shocks get transmitted to the real economy. I construct a new dataset on net foreign currency exposures of Swiss banks and exploit the large and unanticipated currency appreciation...

In this study, we investigated volatility transmission effects be-tween the US and six Asian markets — China, Hong Kong, Japan, Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan — using a bivariate GARCH-BEKK model. We also assessed the impact of shocks on stock market volatility using the volatility impulse...

We stress test the global economy to extreme climate change-related shocks on large and interconnected economies. Our analysis (i) identifies large and interconnected economies vulnerable to climate change-related shocks; (ii) estimates these economies’ external financing needs-at-risk due to...