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Do large recessions reduce output permanently? : conference paper
Hosseinkouchack, Mehdi; Wolters, Maik H. - 2013
lower real GDP permanently or whether we can expect a rebound to earlier trend levels. Using a recent quantile … autoregression unit root test we check whether shocks to real GDP have permanent or temporary effects. In contrast to earlier studies … root hypothesis at the conditional mean of GDP, but also in the tails of the distribution where the lower tail corresponds …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010340611
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Macroeconomic implications of oil-price shocks to emerging economies : a Markov regime-switching approach
Togonidze, Sophio; Kočenda, Evžen - 2022
We investigate an impact of oil-price shocks on GDP and exchange rate dynamics in resource-heterogeneous economies. We …-exporting, and less-resource-intensive economies. On average, real GDP in oil-exporting economies exhibits substantial contraction …, while for metal exporters there is a significant real GDP expansion suggesting an offsetting effect of metal exports on oil …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013369064
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A small New Keynesian model to analyze business cycle dynamics in Poland and Romania
Nalban, Valeriu - In: Contemporary economics 9 (2015) 3, pp. 319-336
cycles; demand shocks explain much of the GDP growth dynamics (persistent positive contributions before the crisis and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011392289
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Good news about news shocks
Langer, Viktoria C. E. - 2015 - Version: June 2015
Extending and modifying the canonical New Keynesian (NK) model, this study provides a novel approach to examine the impact of anticipated shocks called "news shocks" on business cycles. The analysis shows that news shocks are less stressful for an economy than commonly assumed. The main results...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011373568
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Dispersed information and the origins of aggregate fluctuations
Grazzini, Jakob; Massaro, Domenico - 2016
In the presence of dispersed information, agents may decide to take into account the actions of other agents because of the possible additional information conveyed by these actions. We call the act of using other agents' actions in the individual decision process social learning. This paper...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011489440
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Credit, asset prices and business cycles at the global level
Dées, Stéphane - 2015
This paper assesses the role of financial variables in real economic fluctuations, in view of analysing the link between financial cycles and business cycles at the global level. A Global VAR modelling approach, which has been proved suitable for modelling country or regional linkages, is used...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011476350
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Is India's long-term trend growth declining?
Patnaik, Ila; Pundit, Madhavi - 2014
The recent decline in gross domestic product (GDP) growth in India raised a debate about whether it is a trend or a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010463539
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Endogenous Growth, Monetary Shocks and Nominal Rigidities
Annicchiarico, Barbara; Pelloni, Alessandra; Rossi, Lorenza - 2010
We introduce endogenous growth in an otherwise standard NK model with staggered prices and wages. Some results follow: (i) monetary volatility negatively affects long-run growth; (ii) the relation between nominal volatility and growth depends on the persistence of the nominal shocks and on the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010343890
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A unified approach for jointly estimating the business and financial cycle, and the role of financial factors
Berger, Tino; Richter, Julia; Wong, Benjamin - 2021
We jointly estimate the U.S. business and financial cycle through a unified empirical approach while simultaneously accounting for the role of financial factors. Our approach uses the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition within a medium-scale Bayesian Vector Autore-gression. First, we show, both in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012622302
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Government deficit shocks and Okun's coefficient volatility : new insights on the austerity versus growth debate
Binh Thai Pham; Sala, Hector - 2019
This paper connects two salient economic features: (i) Fiscal shocks have asymmetric effects across business cycle phases (Gechert et al., 2019); (ii) Okun's coefficient is time varying and may be unstable. The intertwined dynamic behavior of fiscal shocks and unemployment-output trade-offs are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012054782