We examine the sources of macroeconomic fluctuations by estimating a variety of richly parameterized DSGE models within a unified framework that incorpo- rates regime switching both in shock variances and in the inflation target. We propose an efficient methodology for estimating...

This paper deals with three aspects of spectacular oil price episodes such as the one witnessed in 2008. First, the concept of temporary explosiveness is proposed as an empirical method for capturing this type of behavior. The application of a recently proposed recursive unit root test shows...

Macroeconomic shocks and labour-market institutions jointly determine employment growth and economic performance. The effect of shocks depends on the nature of these intitutions and the effect of institutional change depends on the macroeconomic environment. It follows that a given set of...

Following the real option literature, whether or not uncertainty shocks drive business cycles depends on the degree of adjustment frictions. The more plants freeze and remain inactive in response to increased uncertainty, the stronger the adverse effects on the economic activity. Using quarterly...

We provide a real-options model of an industry in which agents time abandonment of their projects in an effort to protect their reputations. Agents delay abandonment attempting to signal their quality. When a public common shock forces abandonment of a small fraction of projects irrespective of...

Using quarterly worker flow data of U.S. establishments, we find that an unexpected increase in uncertainty reduces hirings and quits, while it raises layoffs. This finding suggests that the real option effect of uncertainty is less important for employment decisions. Hence plants do not freeze...

Macroeconomic shocks and labour-market institutions jointly determine employment growth and economic performance. The effect of shocks depends on the nature of these intitutions and the effect of institutional change depends on the macroeconomic environment. It follows that a given set of...

Macroeconomic shocks and labour-market institutions jointly determine employment growth and economic performance. The effect of shocks depends on the nature of these institutions and the effect of institutional change depends on the macroeconomic environment. It follows that a given set of...

This paper examines how changes in product market concentration, specifically firm exit, affect prices. I develop a model where firms have variable markups to show that the remaining firms increase their markups and prices after their competitors’ exit. The model predictions are tested using...