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Supply shocks and the persistence of inflation
Sommer, Martin - 2002
This paper examines the long-run effects of supply shocks (such as oil shocks) on inflation in the United States. The … persistence of supply shocks in U.S. inflation fell considerably during the period of Volcker's disinflation (1979-1982). My … the behavior of inflation expectations-agents expected shocks to persist in the pre-Volcker period, but not in the post …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010293489
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Interest, reserves, and prices
Benigno, Gianluca; Benigno, Pierpaolo - 2021
rate both matter for determining inflation and economic activity. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012584354
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Monetary policy surprises, central bank information shocks, and economic activity in a small open economy
Laséen, Stefan - 2020
In this paper I study the effects of monetary policy on economic activity and asset prices in Sweden, separately identifying the effects of a conventional policy change from effects of new information about economic fundamentals. Recent research has shown that high-frequency changes in policy...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012309007
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Exchange rate and price dynamics at the zero lower bound : conference paper
Bäurle, Gregor; Kaufmann, Daniel - 2013
permanent shifts of the exchange rate and the price level if a central bank anchors long-run inflation expectations. In line …-run price level target rather than a long-run inflation target avoids these permanent shifts of the exchange rate and the price …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010340556
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How to limit the spillover from the 2021 inflation surge to inflation expectations?
Dräger, Lena; Lamla, Michael; Pfajfar, Damjan - 2022
By providing numerical inflation projections. Many central banks currently face inflation well above their targets and … with that the challenge to prevent spillovers on inflation expectations. We study the effect of different communication … about the 2021 inflation surge on German consumers' inflation expectations using a randomized control trial. We show that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012820929
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How to limit the spillover from an inflation surge to inflation expectations
Dräger, Lena; Lamla, Michael; Pfajfar, Damjan - 2022
We study the effects of forward looking communication in an environment of rising inflation rates on German consumers …' inflation expectations using a randomized control trial. We show that information about rising inflation increases short- and … long-term inflation expectations. This initial increase in expectations can be mitigated using forward looking information …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013278897
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Inflation Past, Present and Future : Fiscal Shocks, Fed Response, and Fiscal Limits
Cochrane, John H. - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022
Our current inflation stemmed from a fiscal shock. The Fed is slow to react. Why? Will the Fed's slow reaction spur … more inflation? I write a simple model that encompasses the Fed's mild projections and its slow reaction, and traditional … views that inflation will surge without swift rate rises. The key question is whether expectations are forward looking or …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013210124
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How to limit the spillover from the 2021 inflation surge to inflation expectations?
Dräger, Lena; Lamla, Michael; Pfajfar, Damjan - 2022
By providing numerical inflation projections. Many central banks currently face inflation well above their targets and … with that the challenge to prevent spillovers on inflation expectations. We study the effect of different communication … about the 2021 inflation surge on German consumers' inflation expectations using a randomized control trial. We show that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012814490
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Changes in monetary regimes and the identification of monetary policy shocks : narrative evidence from Canada
Champagne, Julien; Sekkel, Rodrigo - 2017
by the announcement of inflation targeting in 1991 when estimating the effects of monetary policy. For instance, we find …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011777945
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Identifying Monetary Policy Shocks : A Natural Language Approach
Aruoba, S. Borağan; Drechsel, Thomas - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024
We develop a novel method for the identification of monetary policy shocks. By applying natural language processing techniques to documents that Federal Reserve staff prepare in advance of policy decisions, we capture the Fed's information set. Using machine learning techniques, we then predict...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014544696