This paper analyzes the international transmission effects of euro area monetary policy shocks in to other western European countries, namely the United Kingdom, Sweden, Switzerland, Denmark, and Norway. For this purpose, we use a structural VAR model of the euro area and augment it...

This paper analyzes the factors underlying the weakness of the euro. For this purpose, the framework advocated by Clarida and Gali (1994) is used. Within this model, three structural shocks drive the dynamics of the endogenous variables: aggregate supply shocks, aggregate spending shocks, and...

This paper investigates the role of domestic and external factors in explaining business cycle and international trade developments in fifteen emerging market economies. Results from signrestricted VARs show that developments in real output, inflation, real exchange rates and international trade...

Existing results on the contribution of terms of trade and world interest rate shocks to output fluctuations in small open economies range from less than 10% to almost 90%. We argue that an identification problems lies at the heart of these vastly different results. In this paper, we overcome...

This paper examines the structural determinants of real exchange rates, emphasizing the persistent low-frequency movements that traditional models, such as Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) and Uncovered Interest Parity (UIP), often fail to capture. To address this, we propose a structural VAR model...

This paper examines the stabilization role of the flexible exchange rate in theface of asymmetric shocks for one of the prominent emerging markets and openeconomies, India, using a sign-identified structural Bayesian vector autoregressionmodel over the post reform period 1996-2019. My results...

This paper investigates the role of domestic and external factors in explaining business cycle and international trade developments in fifteen emerging market economies. Results from sign restricted VARs show that developments in real output, inflation, real exchange rates and international...

This paper studies the sources of macroeconomic fluctuations in developing countries using a structural VAR approach. Identification of the sources is achieved using long-run restrictions derived from a theoretical model of a small open economy encompassing a large number of macroeconomic...

We propose and implement an index of macroeconomic vulnerability to foreign shocks based on a structural time-varying bayesianVARwith a block-exogeneity hypothesis for a given pair of a large economy and a small open economy. The index is based on the sum of the responses of the small open...

This paper develops a two-block Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) to estimate the spillover of external shocks to the Maltese economy. The model focuses on five broad macroeconomic shocks hitting the euro area; an aggregate demand shock, two aggregate supply shocks which respectively proxy...