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This paper represents a first attempt to study China’s business cycles using a formal analytical framework, namely, a structural VAR model. It is found that: (a) demand shocks were the dominant source of macroeconomic fluctuations, but supply shocks had gained more importance over time; (b) the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010284541
Russian monetary policy has failed persistently to achieve sustained low inflation, both in absolute terms and relative to the peer group of countries similarly exiting from Soviet-style central planning. This paper explores the reasons for this state of affairs by analyzing the kind of monetary...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013075248
The conventional explanation for the dynamics of output during transition is associated with "good" and "bad" economic policies, in particular with the progress achieved in the liberalization, as measured by the liberalization index, and with the success or failure in macroeconomic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013126845
The paper focuses on analyzing the leading macroeconomic trends and policies in Cuba from 1985-2013. Five macroeconomic indexes were estimated using dynamic factor models. The correlations between the estimated indexes and the GDP growth rate show that, on average, fiscal policy was procyclical...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012957325
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013270502
I quantify the importance of financial structure, labor market rigidities and industry mix for cross-country asymmetries in monetary transmission. To do so, I determine how closely the impulse responses to a monetary policy shock obtained from country-specific vectorautoregressive (VAR) models...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010308266
In this paper we study the drivers of fluctuations in the Irish housing market by developing a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model of Ireland as a member of the European Monetary Union (EMU). We estimate the model with Bayesian methods using time series for both Ireland and the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010308300
Sharp increases in the price of oil are generally seen as a major contributor to business cycle asymmetries. Moreover, the very recent highs registered in the world oil market are causing concern about possible slowdowns in the economic performance of the most developed countries. While several...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010312365
After a contractionary monetary policy shock, aggregate output decreases over time with a trough after a year and a half, while the real interest rate increases immediately, and remains high for about three quarters. A central step in the explanation is obtaining a persistent increase in the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010318351
We explore the implications of endogenous firm entry and exit for business cycle dynamics and optimal fiscal policy. We first show that when the firm exit rate is endogenous, negative technology shocks lead to reductions in the number of firms. Technology shocks therefore have additional effects...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010320770