Unemployment is notoriously difficult to predict. In previous studies, once country and year fixed effects are added to … panel estimates, few variables predict changes in unemployment rates. Using panel data for 29 European countries collected … just over 10000 observations, we predict changes in the unemployment rate 12 months ahead. We do so using individuals …

interact and affect the evolution of unemployment rates and participation rates, the two main indicators of labour market … performance. Our analysis has two special features. First, apart from the two labour market states - employment and unemployment … that a shock to the net flow from unemployment to employment drive the unemployment rate and the participation rate in …

which unemployment experiences have a scarring effect on British men during the Great Recession. Second, it provides an … insight into the relation between true state dependence and the business cycle by investigating the role of local unemployment … in affecting the persistence of unemployment incidence and by analysing the dynamics of unemployment scarring in the last …

This paper presents a reappraisal of unemployment movements in the European Union. Our analysis is based on the chain … reaction theory of unemployment, which focuses on (a) the interaction among labor market adjustment processes, (b) the … growth drivers. Estimating a system of labor market equations for a panel of EU countries, we derive the dynamic unemployment …

interact and affect the evolution of unemployment rates and participation rates, the two main indicators of labour market … performance. Our analysis has two special features. First, apart from the two labour market states – employment and unemployment … that a shock to the net flow from unemployment to employment drive the unemployment rate and the participation rate in …

interact and affect the evolution of unemployment rates and participation rates, the two main indicators of labour market … performance. Our analysis has two special features. First, apart from the two labour market states – employment and unemployment … that a shock to the net flow from unemployment to employment drives the unemployment rate and the participation rate in …

interact and affect the evolution of unemployment rates and participation rates, the two main indicators of labour market … performance. Our analysis has two special features. First, apart from the two labour market states - employment and unemployment … that a shock to the net flow from unemployment to employment drive the unemployment rate and the participation rate in …

. Unemployed workers' skill losses generate multiple steady-state unemployment rates. When monetary policy is constrained by the … permanent unemployment trap. Since monetary policy is powerless to escape such traps ex post, it must avoid them ex ante. The …

The aim of this paper is to analyze and estimate salient characteristics of unemployment dynamics. Movements in … unemployment are viewed as "chain reactions" of responses to labor market shocks, working their way through systems of interacting … aggregate measures of unemployment responses to temporary and permanent shocks. These measures are temporal (depicting how long …