This paper studies the behaviors of uncertainty through the lens of several popular models of expectation formation. The full-information rational expectations model (FIRE) predicts that both the ex ante uncertainty and the variance of ex post forecast errors are equal to the conditional...

This paper analyzes the role of heterogeneous households in propagating shocks over the business cycle by generalizing a basic sticky-price model to allow for imperfect risk-sharing between households that differ in labor incomes. I show that imperfectly insured household consumption distorts...