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This paper studies the behaviors of uncertainty through the lens of several popular models of expectation formation. The full-information rational expectations model (FIRE) predicts that both the ex ante uncertainty and the variance of ex post forecast errors are equal to the conditional...
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We use a simple New Keynesian model, with firm specific capital, non-zero steady-state inflation, long-run risks and … rate by 150 basis points causes output and inflation volatility to rise around 10% above their steady-state standard … deviations from the policy rule and the results are re-enforced by the presence of non-zero trend inflation. …
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