How much does real gross domestic product (GDP) respond to unanticipated changes in the real price of oil? Commonly used censored oil price vector autore- gressive models suggest a substantial decline in real GDP in response to unex- pected increases in the real price of oil, yet no response to...

This paper uses two of the IMF's structural macroeconomic models to estimate the potential global impact of the boom in unconventional oil and natural gas in the United States. The results suggest that the impact on the level of U.S. real GDP over roughly the next decade could be significant,...

In this paper, we study the impact of the oil and gas industry on county-level employment and wage earnings across not only the boom, but also the bust cycle. Our paper is among the first to estimate wage and employment impacts of the bust cycle for the U.S. oil and gas industry and directly...