We analyze an estimated stochastic general equilibrium model that replicates key macroeconomic and financial stylized facts during the Great Moderation of 1983-2007. Our model predicts a sizeable and volatile nominal term premium - comparable to recent reduced-form empirical estimates - with...

We use a unique Brazilian dataset on daily survey expectations to obtain direct measures of shocks to central bank target rates and changes in economic uncertainty. Using these measures, we gauge the effect of monetary policy shocks on economic uncertainty, term premia, inflation expectations,...

The Bank of Russia's Board of Directors decided in April to keep the key interest rate unchanged on the heels of new sanctions on Russia that affected seriously the Russian rouble. The exchange rate pass-through to prices can guide, sooner than it was expected, inflation closer to its 4% target...

We shed new light on the effects of monetary policy shocks in the US. Gertler and Karadi (2015) suggest that movements in credit costs may result in substantial impact of monetary policy shocks on economic activity. Using the proxy SVAR framework, we show that once the Volcker disinflation...

We estimate the time-varying distribution of aggregate supply (AS) and aggregate demand (AD) shocks defined in the Keynesian tradition. In modeling the time variation in higher order moments, we distinguish between traditional Gaussian uncertainty and "bad" uncertainty, associated with negative...

In this paper I study the effects of monetary policy on economic activity and asset prices in Sweden, separately identifying the effects of a conventional policy change from effects of new information about economic fundamentals. Recent research has shown that high-frequency changes in policy...

We analyze an estimated stochastic general equilibrium model that replicates key macroeconomic and fi nancial stylized facts during the Great Moderation of 1983-2007. Our model predicts a sizeable and volatile nominal term premium - comparable to recent reduced-form empirical estimates - with...

The term structure of interest rates is crucial for the transmission of monetary policy to financial markets and the macroeconomy. Disentangling the impact of monetary policy on the components of interest rates, expected short rates and term premia, is essential to under- standing this channel....

We analyze an estimated stochastic general equilibrium model that replicates key macroeconomic and financial stylized facts during the Great Moderation of 1983-2007. Our model predicts a sizeable and volatile nominal term premium - comparable to recent reduced-form empirical estimates - with...

We use non-Gaussian features in U.S. macroeconomic data to identify aggregate supply and demand shocks while imposing minimal economic assumptions. Recessions in the 1970s and 1980s were driven primarily by supply shocks, later recessions were driven primarily by demand shocks, and the Great...