Under a conventional policy rule, a central bank adjusts its policy rate linearly according to the gap between inflation and its target, and the gap between output and its potential. Under 'the opportunistic approach to disinflation' a central bank controls inflation aggressively when inflation...

In this paper we investigate the possible effects of fiscal tightening in Hungary from two perspectives. First, simulations in an estimated neo-Keynesian model are used to characterise the effects of different scenarios for fiscal consolidations. We show that the composition of fiscal shocks is...

This paper studies optimal discretionary monetary policy in the presence of uncertainty about the degree of financial frictions. Changes in the degree of financial frictions are modelled as changes in parameters of a hybrid New-Keynesian model calibrated for the UK, following Bean, Larsen and...

Should the central bank seek to identify the underlying causes of oil price hikes in determining appropriate policy responses to them? Most likely not. Within a calibrated new-Keynesian model of Oil-Importing and Oil-Producing Countries, I derive the Ramsey policy and analyze optimal monetary...

In this paper we investigate the possible effects of fiscal tightening in Hungary from two perspectives. First, simulations in an estimated neo-Keynesian model are used to characterise the effects of different scenarios for fiscal consolidations. We show that the composition of fiscal shocks is...

It is widely argued that Europe's unified monetary policy calls for the international coordination at the fiscal level. We survey the issues involved with such coordination of fiscal policy as a demand management tool and we use a simple model to investigate the circumstances under which...

In this paper, we employ a block structured near-vector autoregression in order to compare the reactions to euro-area shocks in four New Member States (Bulgaria, Hungary, Czech Republic and Romania) and in the Old Member State of the EU. Thanks to the methodology adopted we also study the...

In this paper we introduce the general setting of a multivariate time series autoregressive model with stochastic time-varying coefficients and time-varying conditional variance of the error process. This allows modeling VAR dynamics for non-stationary times series and estimation of time varying...

Following Giraitis, Kapetanios, and Yates (2014b), this paper uses kernel methods to estimate a seven variable time-varying (TV) vector autoregressive (VAR) model on the data set constructed by Smets and Wouters (2007). We apply an indirect inference method to map from this TV VAR to time...

What policy objective should a common central bank in a heterogeneous monetary union pursue? Should it base its decisions on the EU-wide average of inflation and growth or should it instead focus on (appropriately weighted) national welfare losses based on national rates of inflation and growth?...