Showing 1 - 10 of 9,238
This paper proposes a predictive approach to estimate macroeconomic tail risk dynamics over the long run (1876-2015). Our approach circumvents the scarcity of large macroeconomic crises by using observable predictive variables in a large international panel. This method does not require to use...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012233219
volatility over the benchmark rational expectations case and exactly matches the standard deviation of consumption. Finally, the … model generates time varying volatility consistent with the data on quarterly equity returns …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013054127
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014489965
This paper employs a bivariate BEKK-GARCH(1,1) model to examine shock and volatility spillovers between crude oil and … equity sector returns. In the market level, there are unilateral spillovers of shock and volatility from oil price to stock … market return. The findings in this paper are crucial for financial market participation to understand shock and volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012840698
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013259807
conditional volatility and strongly support the estimation of dynamic returns that allow for time-varying correlations. A …This study examines the statistical properties required to model the dynamics of both the returns and volatility series … adequately estimate long-memory dynamics in returns and volatility. The in-sample diagnostic tests as well as out …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013272684
Historically, value stocks earn higher average returns than growth stocks; however, the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) cannot explain this pattern, which is called the value premium puzzle. This study shows that uncertainty shocks can explain the puzzle. Intuitively, the value of growth...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012965668
Commonality in idiosyncratic volatility cannot be completely explained by time-varying volatility. We decompose the … common factor in idiosyncratic volatility (CIV) of Herskovic et al. (2016) into two components: idiosyncratic volatility … innovations (VIN) and time-varyingidiosyncratic volatility (TVV). VIN is priced in the cross section of stock returns, whereas TVV …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012902994
volatility of Borsa Istanbul 100 Index (BIST-100). Sample data cover the period from January 2008 to December 2017. The main … nonlinear volatility models (symmetric and asymmetric Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity [GARCH …]-type models) were used to model and estimate BIST-100 volatility in response to political news. The findings of the paper …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012131511
What are the effects of beliefs, sentiment, and uncertainty, over the business cycle? To answer this question, we develop a behavioral New Keynesian macroeconomic model, in which we relax the assumption of rational expectations. Agents are, instead, boundedly rational: they have a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012294890