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The rationality and reliability of expectations reported by British households: micro evidence from the British household panel survey

Mitchell, James; Weale, Martin R. - 2007

This paper assesses the accuracy of individuals' expectations of their financial circumstances, as reported in the British Household Panel Survey, as predictors of outcomes and identifies what factors influence their reliability. As the data are qualitative bivariate ordered probit models,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295856

The rationality and reliability of expections reported by British Households : micro evidence from the British Household Panel Survey

Mitchell, James (contributor); Weale, Martin (contributor) - 2007

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003428473

The rationality and reliability of expectations reported by British households : micro evidence from the British household panel survey

Mitchell, James (contributor); Weale, Martin (contributor) - 2007

This paper assesses the accuracy of individuals’ expectations of their financial circumstances, as reported in the British Household Panel Survey, as predictors of outcomes and identifies what factors influence their reliability. As the data are qualitative bivariate ordered probit models,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003529544

Some evolutionary foundations for price level rigidity

Saint-Paul, Gilles - 2002

This paper shows that price rigidity evolves in an economy populated by imperfectly rational agents who experiment with alternative rules of thumb. In the model, firms must set their prices in face of aggregate demand shocks. Their payoff depends on the level of aggregate demand, as well as on...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011409938

Heterogeneity in individual expectations, sentiment, and constant-gain learning

Cole, Stephen J.; Milani, Fabio - 2020

The adaptive learning approach has been fruitfully employed to model the formation of aggregate expectations at the macroeconomic level, as an alternative to rational expectations. This paper uses adaptive learning to understand, instead, the formation of expectations at the micro-level, by...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012226634

Adaptive Learning and Monetary Policy Design

Honkapohja, Seppo; Evans, George W. - 2003

We review the recent work on interest rate setting, which emphasizes the desirability of designing policy to ensure stability under private agent learning. Appropriately designed expectations based rules can yield optimal rational expectations equilibria that are both determinate and stable...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014089471

Household income expectations : the role of shocks and aggregate conditions

Bucciol, Alessandro; Easaw, Joshy Z.; Trucchi, Serena - 2024

We conduct an empirical investigation to examine how income shocks and aggregate conditions influence income … detailed information on household income expectations. Our results show that income shocks, much more than aggregate conditions …, induce a revision in income expectations across the entire spectrum of the income distribution. This expectation revision is …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014491735

How do agents form macroeconomic expectations? : evidence from inflation uncertainty

Wang, Tao - 2024 - Last updated: February 16, 2024

This paper studies the behaviors of uncertainty through the lens of several popular models of expectation formation. The full-information rational expectations model (FIRE) predicts that both the ex ante uncertainty and the variance of ex post forecast errors are equal to the conditional...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014475397

Income and wealth shocks and expectations during the COVID-19 pandemic

Hanspal, Tobin; Weber, Annika; Wohlfart, Johannes - 2020

effect of the coronavirus crisis on household income and retirement wealth, households’ expectations about the recovery, and … the impact of the shock on individuals’ economic choices. Wealth shocks are large across the population, but more … pronounced for middle-age households and those higher in the wealth and income distributions. This contrasts with income shocks …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012206687

Household income expectations : the role of shocks and aggregate conditions

Bucciol, Alessandro; Easaw, Joshy Z.; Trucchi, Serena - 2024

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014513404

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