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The Chinese impact on GDP growth and inflation in the industrial countries
Dreger, Christian; Zhang, Yanqun - 2011
The integration of China into the global economy is one of the most spectacular events in economic history. This paper … to explore interdependencies between business cycles in China and industrial countries, including the US, the euro area … and Japan. For robustness, the results are compared to those obtained from leading structural models, such as NiGEM and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009515006
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Identifying the shocks behind business cycle asynchrony in Euroland
Trenkler, Carsten; Weber, Enzo - 2012
This paper investigates which shocks drive asynchrony of business cycles in the euro area. Thereby, it unites two strands of literature, those on common features and on structural VAR analysis. In particular, we show that the presence of a common cycle implies collinearity of structural impulse...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011489953
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Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Sub-Saharan Africa
Hoffmaister, Alexander W. - 2006
The sources of macroeconomic fluctuations in sub-Saharan African are examined by comparing the CFA franc countries with the non-CFA franc countries. External shocks, especially terms of trade shocks, appear to have a greater influence on fluctuations of output and the real exchange rate in CFA...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012782247
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Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Sub-Saharan Africa
Hoffmaister, Alexander W.; Roldos, Jorge E.; Wickham, Peter - 1999
The sources of macroeconomic fluctuations in sub-Saharan African are examined by comparing the CFA franc countries with the non-CFA franc countries. External shocks, especially terms of trade shocks, appear to have a greater influence on fluctuations of output and the real exchange rate in CFA...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014057360
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Chinese supply chain shocks
Khalil, Makram; Weber, Marc-Daniel - 2022
of the Covid-19 pandemic in early 2020, the results pointed towards large spillovers from the shutdown in China to … related to the shift of preferences towards goods with a large China valued-added content played a relevant role …. Interestingly, the impact of Chinese supply chain shocks is not limited to manufacturing sectors that are highly exposed to China …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013459723
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Has the Euro changed the business cycle?
Enders, Zeno; Jung, Philip; Müller, Gernot J. - 2009
In this paper we analyze European business cycles before and under EMU. Across the two periods we find 1) a significant decline in real exchange rate volatility, 2) significant changes in cross-country correlations, and 3) the volatility of macroeconomic fundamentals largely unchanged. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003850663
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Financial integration and international shock transmission : the terms-of-trade effect
Krenz, Johanna - 2023
What are the effects of financial integration on global comovement? Using a standard two-country DSGE model, I show that in response to country-specific supply shocks higher exposure to foreign assets leads to lower cross-country output correlations, while the opposite is true for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014463371
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Global economy and the euro area : uncertainty weighs on trade and investment
Michelsen, Claus; Ansari, Dawud; Baldi, Guido; … - In: DIW weekly report : economy, politics, science : a … 8 (2018) 50/52, pp. 506-508
The global expansion weakened somewhat in the third quarter while the downside risks have increased. DIW Berlin’s forecast- almost unchanged-indicates an expansion in global economic production of 4.3 percent for 2018 and 3.9 percent for 2019. In 2020, momentum will slow down further to 3.6...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011946921
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Coherence of output gaps in the euro area : the impact of the Covid-19 shock
Haan, Jakob de; Jacobs, Jan; Zijm, Renske - 2022
Using the measures proposed by Mink et al. (2012), we reexamine the coherence of business cycles in the euro area using a long sample period. We also analyze the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on business cycle coherence and examine whether our measures for business cycle coherence indicate a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013168003
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The international dimension of confidence shocks
Dées, Stéphane; Güntner, Jochen - 2014
Building on Beaudry, Nam and Wang (2011) - hereafter BNW -, we use survey data on consumer sentiment in order to identify the causal effects of confidence shocks on real economic activity in a selection of advanced economies. Starting from a set of closed-economy VAR models, we show that these...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010354540