In this paper we analyse debt stabilization in a monetary union that features endogenous risk premia. In particular, we analyse debt stabilization in two diametrically opposed regimes. In the first regime, the "national fiscal discipline regime", financial markets impose sovereign risk premia...

We introduce a methodology for measuring default risk connectedness that is based on an out-of-sample variance decomposition of model forecast errors. The out-of-sample nature of the procedure leads to "realized" measures which, in practice, respond more quickly to crisis occurrences than those...

During the last crisis, developed economies' sovereign Credit Default Swap (hereafter CDS) premia have gained in importance as a tool for approximating credit risk. In this paper, we fit a dynamic factor model to decompose the sovereign CDS spreads of ten OECD economies into three components: a...

European sovereign debt markets have been under scrutiny ever since the sovereign debt crisis of 2009. In this paper, we decompose bond and CDS spreads into fundamental and non-fundamental parts by means of a heterogeneous agent model. The model contains arbitrageurs who make use of the...

This paper considers the time-varying asymmetric correlation between the stock and government bond price returns of the five peripheral EU countries during the EU sovereign crisis. To this end this paper proposes a new asymmetric copula using the split-normal distribution. The time-varying...

In this paper we examine sovereign bond yield spread (BYS) spillovers between Euro zone countries during a turbulent period encompassing both the global financial crisis and the Euro zone debt crisis. Using the VAR-based spillover index approach of Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) and impulse response...