This paper proposes a theory of the fiscal foundations of inflation based on imperfect knowledge and learning. The theory is similar in spirit to, but distinct from, unpleasant monetarist arithmetic and the fiscal theory of the price level. Because the assumption of imperfect knowledge breaks...

This paper examines how the scale and composition of public debt can affect economies that implement a combination of “passive” monetary policy and “active” fiscal policy. This policy configuration is argued to be of both historical and contemporary interest in the cases of the U.S. and...

We study the relationship between default and the maturity structure of the debt portfolio of a Sovereign, under uncertainty. The Sovereign faces a trade-off between a future costly default and a high current fiscal effort. This results into a debt crisis in case a large initial issuance of long...

One of the main conclusions of Reinhart and Rogoff's study of sovereign debt crises, highlighted in its title This Time is Different, is that markets for sovereign debt are prone to manic mood swings. When things go well for an extended period, lenders tend to underestimate risks of crisis. They...

This paper examines how the scale and composition of public debt can affect economies that implement a combination of "passive" monetary policy and "active" fiscal policy. This policy configuration is argued to be of both historical and contemporary interest in the cases of the U.S. and Japanese...

This paper uses cross country regression analysis on a large set of countries to consider two hypotheses. The first is that increased public debt as a percentage of the economy reduces confidence in financial institutions. The second is that increased public debt relative to the economy lowers...

Several studies have identified the impact of total public debt on inflation. These studies are based on the assumption of a symmetric relationship between these variables. However, because different governments react to changes in total public debt (positive or negative) differently, this study...