Using a sample of emerging markets that are integrated into global bond markets, we analyze the collapse and recovery phase of output collapses that coincide with systemic sudden stops, defined as periods of skyrocketing aggregate bond spreads and large capital flow reversals. Our findings...

In emerging-market economies, real exchange rate adjustment is critical for maintaining a sustainable current account position and thereby for helping to reduce macroeconomic and financial instability. The authors examine empirically two related hypotheses: (i) that real exchange rate...

This paper investigates the drivers of reserves in emerging markets (EMs) and small island (SIs) and develops an operational metric for estimating reserves in SIs taking into account their unique characteristics. It uses quantile regression techniques to allow the estimated factors driving...

This is one of the contributions which is part of BIS Paper 68 and which was presented at the BIS-sponsored sessions at the Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association (LACEA) meetings in 2010-11, focusing on the drivers and effects of capital flows and the challenges they pose for the...

Recurrent capital inflows pose important challenges for authorities in emerging market economies seeking to preserve financial stability. Raising interest rates to dampen imbalances that could arise from capital flows can also attract more capital inflows and accentuate appreciation pressures....

The impact of an unanticipated monetary shock in a small open economy with dollarization, factor price rigidities, and nontradeables is re-examined in an optimizing intertemporal general equilibrium model. The framework of an earlier study is extended to incorporate foreign real money balances...

The purpose of this article is to go back to basics of the international balance of payments to take a closer look at the roles of international reserves and related factors in the exchange rate managements of an emerging economy. It is a timely attempt because; (1) international reserves are...

​This paper studies episodes of exceptionally large capital inflows. We find that these events are typically accompanied by an economic boom, and followed by a slump. Moreover, during episodes of large capital inflows capital and labor shift out of the manufacturing sector, especially if the...

The study examines the reasons for financial crises in 31 emerging market countries during 1980-2001. It estimates a probit model using 23 macroeconomic and financial sector variables. Traditional variables such as unemployment and inflation, as well as several indicators of indebtedness such as...

What is the appropriate exchange rate regime for the emerging economies of Eastern Europe? Would a given regime suit all of them equally? Is there a regime that is as appropriate for the transition as for the long run? What are the relative merits of fixed and flexible rates in this context and...