Rationality of early release data is typically tested using linear regressions. Thus, failure to reject the null does not rule out the possibility of nonlinear dependence. This paper proposes two tests which instead have power against generic nonlinear alternatives. A Monte Carlo study shows...

This paper develops tests for comparing the accuracy of predictive densities derived from (possibly misspecified) diffusion models. In particular, we first outline a simple simulation-based framework for constructing predictive densities for one-factor and stochastic volatility models. Then, we...

Rationality of early release data is typically tested using linear regressions. Thus, failure to reject the null does not rule out the possibility of nonlinear dependence. This paper proposes two tests that have power against generic nonlinear alternatives. A Monte Carlo study shows that the...

In recent years it has become apparent that many of the classical testing procedures used to select amongst alternative economic theories and economic models are not realistic. In particular, researchers have become more aware of the fact that parameter estimation error and data dependence play...