Usually, seasonal adjustment is based on time series models which decompose an unadjusted series into the sum or the product of four unobservable components (trendcycle, seasonal, working-day and irregular components). In the case of clearly weatherdependent output in the west German...

To date, there has been little investigation of the impact of seasonal adjustment on the detection of business cycle expansion and recession regimes. We study this question both analytically and through Monte Carlo simulations. Analytically, we view the occurrence of a single business cycle...

In seasonal adjustment a time series is considered as a juxtaposition of several components, the trend-cycle, and the seasonal and irregular components. The Bureau of the Census X-11 method, based on moving averages, correction of large errors and trading day adjustments, has long dominated....

Currently, the methods used by producers of official statistics do not facilitate the seasonal and calendar adjustment of daily time series, even though an increasing number of series with daily observations are available. The aim of this paper is the development of a procedure to estimate and...

Time series resulting from aggregation of several sub-series can be seasonally adjusted directly or indirectly. With model-based seasonal adjustment, the sub-series may also be considered as a multivariate system of series and the analysis may be done jointly. This approach has considerable...

La crisis económica reciente ha alterado la dinámica de las series económicas y, como consecuencia, ha introducido incertidumbre en el ajuste estacional en estos últimos años. El problema se discutió en seminarios celebrados en Eurostat y en el Banco Central Europeo durante el año 2010,...

We examine the short-term performance of two alternative approaches to forecasting using dynamic factor models. The fi rst approach extracts the seasonal component of the individual indicators before estimating the dynamic factor model, while the alternative uses the nonseasonally adjusted data...

With seasonal adjustment one has to decide whether to seasonal adjust an aggregate like GDP directly or to sum up its seasonally adjusted components. This choice is usually driven by subjective motives or practical convenience. In the case of seasonal adjustment with chain-linked data one might...

The partial shutdown of the economy following the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the lack of measurements of economic activity that are available with a short lag and at high frequency. The consumption of electricity turns out to be a valuable proxy, if it is corrected for...

In seasonal adjustment a time series is considered as a juxtaposition of several components, the trend-cycle, and the seasonal and irregular components. The Bureau of the Census X-11 method, based on moving averages, correction of large errors and trading day adjustments, has long dominated....