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Essays on business cycle analysis and demography
Sarferaz, Samad - 2009
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008811071
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Macroeconomic Effects of Uncertainty Shocks : Evidence from Korea
Cho, Dooyeon; Kim, Husang - 2022
This paper proposes a new measure of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) for Korea by fine-tuning the keywords and exploiting information drawn from a wide variety of local newspapers. The uniqueness of our new EPU index lies mainly in the fact that it uses a set of keywords that correspond much...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013294884
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Inflation Expectations and Recovery from the Depression in 1933 : Evidence from the Narrative Record
Jalil, Andrew - 2015
This paper uses the historical narrative record to determine whether inflation expectations shifted during the second quarter of 1933, precisely as the recovery from the Great Depression took hold. First, by examining the historical news record and the forecasts of contemporary business...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013023032
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Inflation Expectations and Recovery from the Depression in 1933 : Evidence from the Narrative Record
Jalil, Andrew - 2015
This paper uses the historical narrative record to determine whether inflation expectations shifted during the second quarter of 1933, precisely as the recovery from the Great Depression took hold. First, by examining the historical news record and the forecasts of contemporary business...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013035070
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Inflation Expectations and Recovery from the Depression in 1933 : Evidence from the Narrative Record
Jalil, Andrew; Rua, Gisela - 2021
This paper uses the historical narrative record to determine whether inflation expectations shifted during the second quarter of 1933, precisely as the recovery from the Great Depression took hold. First, by examining the historical news record and the forecasts of contemporary business...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014088087
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The changing transmission of uncertainty shocks in the US : an empirical analysis
Mumtaz, Haroon; Theodoridis, Konstantinos - 2014
This paper investigates if the impact of uncertainty shocks on the US economy has changed over time. To this end, we develop an extended Factor Augmented VAR model that simultaneously allows the estimation of a measure of uncertainty and its time-varying impact on a range of variables. We find...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010472799
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ROC and PRC Approaches to Evaluate Recession Forecasts
Lahiri, Kajal; Yang, Cheng - 2023
We have studied the relationship between Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) and Precision Recall Curve (PRC) both analytically and using a real-life empirical example of yield spread as a predictor of recessions. We show that false alarm rate in ROC and inverted precision in PRC are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014350696
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News Entropy
Kuhlen, Nikolas; Preston, Andrew - 2021
increased stock price volatility at the firm level …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013234550
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The macroeconomic effects of uncertainty shocks : the role of the financial channel
Popp, Aaron; Zhang, Fang - In: Journal of economic dynamics & control 69 (2016), pp. 319-349
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011708586
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Common and country specific economic uncertainty
Mumtaz, Haroon; Theodoridis, Konstantinos - 2015
We use a factor model with stochastic volatility to decompose the time-varying variance of Macro economic and Financial … component plays an important role in driving the time-varying volatility of nominal and financial variables. The cross …-country co-movement in volatility of real and financial variables has increased over time with the common component becoming more …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011306276