To understand the extent to which partisan majorities in Congress influence economic policy, we compare financial market responses in recent midterm elections to Presidential elections. We use prediction markets tracking election outcomes as a means of precisely timing and calibrating the...

To understand the extent to which partisan majorities in Congress influence economic policy, we compare financial market responses in recent midterm elections to Presidential elections. We use prediction markets tracking election outcomes as a means of precisely timing and calibrating the...

Is globalization being derailed by opponents? Result of this event study analysis of the 1997 fast-track denial suggest that investors (1) may have perceived fast-track as a debate on globalization and (2) appear to have expected financial losses to result from the failure to enact fast-track....

Recent research suggests that, public perceptions notwithstanding, members of Congress are rather mediocre investors. Why do the consummate political insiders fail to profit as investors? We consider various explanations that pertain to members' political relationships to public firms. We show...

Is there a presidential rhetoric of hard times? We are interested in presidents' rhetorical reactions during economic contractions. Do they rhetorically react at all? If they choose to speak, what do they seek to convey to the public about the economy? We analyze the major discretionary speeches...

Recent studies highlight positive effect of political connections on firm performance and stock returns. This paper shows that the positive effect of political connections on the cross-sectional stock returns disappears in the lame duck presidency period, defined as the last two years before the...