This paper studies the interplay of fiscal policy and asset price returns of the United States in a time-varying-parameter vector autoregressive model. Using annual data from 1890 to 2013, we study the effects of dynamic shocks to both fiscal policy and asset returns on asset returns and fiscal...

This paper empirically explores the short- and long-run effects of fiscal and monetary policies on US stock returns and tests the validity of market efficiency. The results support the presence of a strong long-run (equilibrium) relation binding stock prices with fiscal (but not monetary)...

Firms with high levels of organization capital, a firm-specific production factor provided by key employees, are known to be risky and earn high stock returns. We argue that fragility of organization capital -- its sensitivity to potential disruptions -- is an independently important determinant...

Announcing a large fiscal stimulus may signal the government’s pessimism about the severity of a recession to the private sector, impairing the stabilizing effects of the policy. Using a theoretical model, we show that these signaling effects occur when the stimulus exceeds expectations and...