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This paper investigates the effects of dynamic capital market conditions in a general equilibrium model, employing a process of switching steady-state levels of the volatility of market conditions (SS-uncertainty). Decision-makers predict SS-uncertainty regimes using past fundamental shocks, but...
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We use a Panel Smooth Transition Regression (STR) model to study nonlinearities in the expectation-formation process in the U.S. stock market. To this end, we use data from the Livingston survey to investigate how the importance of regressive and extrapolative expectations fluctuates over time...
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inflation forecasts. The paper contributes to the existing literature and the understanding of how inflation expectations are … formed in two ways. Firstly, we present an integrated model of how non-experts form their inflation expectations. The paper … initially outlines how professionals form inflation forecast. Subsequently, the model presents the non-expert’s expectations …
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We investigate the overconfidence theory and inflation illusion hypothesis of asset mispricing. Both concepts address … markets. Further, we find that asset turnover subsumes expected inflation in certain specifications; suggesting that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013094362
We investigate the overconfidence theory and inflation-illusion hypothesis of asset mispricing. Both concepts address … markets. Further, we find that asset turnover subsumes expected inflation in certain specifications; suggesting that …
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