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With its America First strategy, the former US administration turned away from an internationally oriented trade policy. It attempted to assert its interests, especially vis-à-vis China, with bilateral and mostly restrictive measures such as import tariffs. This Weekly Report shows that the...
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This paper explores the relationship between equity prices and the current account for 17 industrialized countries in the period 1980 - 2007. Based on a panel vector autoregression, I compare the effects of equity price shocks to those originating from monetary policy and exchange rates. While...
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foreign exchange markets. -- Random Lognormal cascades ; GMM estimation ; best linear forecasting ; volatility of financial … Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimation procedure to cope with the documented difficulties of previous methodologies. We … by estimating the intermittency parameter and forecasting of volatility for a sample of financial data from stock and …
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Mean reversion, volatility persistence, long memory, time scales, stochastic volatility, GARCH, spurious long memory … stock market crashes. Turning to the second moment of the return distribution, expected volatility, I consider mean …
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