We study the well-known multiplicative Lognormal cascade process in which the multiplication of Gaussian and Lognormally distributed random variables yields time series with intermittent bursts of activity. Due to the non-stationarity of this process and the combinatorial nature of such a...

In diesem Aufsatz wird die nichtparametrische Autoregression auf die Prognose von Quantilen angewendet. Verfahren der Kernregression werden benutzt, um zu autoregressiven Quantiisschätzern zu gelangen. Da die üblichen Maße zur Beurteilung der Prognose, wie etwa der mittlere quadratische...

This thesis presents a new strategy that unites qualitative and quantitative mass data in form of text news and tick-by-tick asset prices to forecast the risk of upcoming volatility shocks. Holger Kömm embeds the proposed strategy in a monitoring system, using first, a sequence of competing...