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I study the effects of risk and ambiguity (Knightian uncertainty) on optimal portfolios and equilibrium asset prices … ambiguity leads to portfolio inertia and excess volatility. Specifically, when news is surprising, then investors may not react …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013133587
pricing models with smooth ambiguity. Statistical model comparison shows that models with ambiguity, learning and time … models featuring smooth ambiguity preferences. We rely on semi-nonparametric estimation of a flexible auxiliary model in our …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011780610
I study the effects of aversion to risk and ambiguity (uncertainty in the sense of Knight (1921)) on the value of the … ambiguity can explain high expected stock market returns and excess volatility and kurtosis of stock market returns. Moreover …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013134524
ambiguity aversion in the spirit of Klibanoff et al. (2005). I calibrate the model to the post-war US data. The main findings … volatility clusterng and persistence; and (3) Bayesian learning itself is unable to generate a significant and positive risk … premium once time variation in investment opportunities is accounted for; in most cases, Bayesian learning lowers the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009411461
Maximum drawdown refers to the largest cumulative loss of a portfolio within a given time interval. While it has been used by investment professionals as an important measure of portfolio risk for many years, its nature and its implications for asset pricing have not been well understood. The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013070149
The portfolio separating distribution is sufficient and necessary for a preference-free optimal choice only if the solution is assumed to be constant a priori. The portfolio separating condition is generalized. The new distribution class allowing for correlation uncertainty is defined as...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013040169
Superior to the variance, "swap variance (SwV)" summarizes the entire probability distribution of returns and is unbiased to distributional asymmetry. Retaining the same simplicity as mean-variance (MV) model, the efficiency of mean-swap variance (MSwV) is necessary and sufficient conditions for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012934044
In this paper I study the relationship between rationality and asset prices when agents have heterogeneous and incorrect beliefs about future events. Using the fully rational pricing as a benchmark, I show that when agents behave according to the Subjective Generalized Kelly rule (Bottazzi et...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011805975
S&P 500 Index option-based volatility indexes have untenable risk-return profiles. These volatility indexes are not designed with consideration of important real-world risk characteristics of options and fail to represent volatility as a differentiated asset-class with relevance to the long-term...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012865881
You're probably familiar, at least in passing, with the 'convexity' of long-term bonds - i.e. that yields dropping 1% produce a bigger price move than yields rising 1%. A significant amount of brainpower has gone into understanding all the ramifications of this convexity in the fixed income...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012902324