This paper examines the effect of product market threats on firms' stock crash risk. Competitive pressure from the product market aggravates managers' incentive to withhold negative information. When negative information is accumulated to a tipping point, the accumulated information all comes...

We revisit a traditional topic in monetary economics: the relationship between asset prices and monetary policy. We study a model in which money helps facilitate trade in decentralized markets, as in Lagos andWright (2005), and real assets are traded in an over-the-counter (OTC) market, as in...

Recent empirical literature documents that unexpected changes in the nominal interest rates have a significant effect on stock prices: a 25-basis point increase in the Fed funds rate is associated with an immediate decrease in broad stock indices that may range from 0.5 to 2.3 percent, followed...

Employing dividend yield decomposition, this paper explores the inflation illusion and inflation hedging effects on REIT stock prices. Results show that changes in expected inflation explain a large share of the time series variation of the mispricing components of the dividend yield. Also,...

We show in a simple framework that momentum trading can exist in equilibrium and momentum trading is profitable. Properties of the model fit the empirics well. First, the model captures in a parsimonious manner both short-term overreaction and long-term reversals. Second, it predicts that...

Siegel (2014), Shilling (2015) and others rely on the work of Alfred C. Cowles to capture US stock market returns before 1926. Cowles in turn relied on Frederick Macaulay's work for data on railroad stocks during this era. This study attempts to re-construct Cowles' index from the ground up, by...

We investigate the change in the aggregate earnings-returns relation from negative to positive. We first identify a gradual structural break around the second quarter of 1991. We then find evidence of three contributing factors to the change in the relation. They are: i) an increase in the...

Monetary policy shocks have a large impact on aggregate stock market returns in narrow event windows around press releases by the Federal Open Market Committee. We use spatial autoregressions to decompose the overall effect of monetary policy shocks into a direct (demand) effect and an indirect...

We propose an Economic Stability Index (ESI) incorporating house prices and stock prices as components of the measure of the inflation rate in order to allow the European Central Bank (ECB) to achieve both price and macroeconomic stability. We use an optimisation approach to estimate target...

We study the importance of production networks for the transmission of macroeconomic shocks using the stock market reaction to monetary policy shocks as a laboratory. We decompose the overall effect of monetary policy shocks into a direct effect and a network effect and attribute 50 to 85...