Risk estimation or volatility estimation at financial markets, particularly stock exchange markets, is complex issue of great importance to theorists and practitioners. Models used to estimate volatility forecasts are translated into better pricing of stocks and better risk management. The aim...

This study aimed to predict the JKII (Jakarta Islamic Index) price as a price index of sharia stocks and predict the loss risk. This study uses geometric Brownian motion (GBM) and Value at Risk (VaR; with the Monte Carlo Simulation approach) on the daily closing price of JKII from 1 August...

Over the last three decades, the world economy has been facing stock market crashes, currency crisis, the dot-com and real estate bubble burst, credit crunch and banking panics. As a response, extreme value theory (EVT) provides a set of ready-made approaches to risk management analysis....

In this research paper ARCH-type models and option implied volatilities (IV) are applied in order to estimate the Value-at-Risk (VaR) of a stock index futures portfolio for several time horizons. The relevance of the asymmetries in the estimated volatility estimation is considered. The empirical...

We forecast monthly Value at Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) using option market data and four different econometric techniques. Independently from the econometric approach used, all models produce quick to estimate forward-looking risk measures that do not depend from the amount...

Using daily observations of the index and stock market returns for the Peruvian case from January 3, 1990 to May 31, 2013, this paper models the distribution of daily loss probability, estimates maximum quantiles and tail probabilities of this distribution, and models the extremes through a...

We estimate the impact of macroeconomic risk factors on shipping stock returns, using a quantile regression (QR) model. We regress the excess return of a portfolio for the container, dry bulk, chemical/gas, oil tanker, and diversified shipping sectors on the world market portfolio excess return,...