We develop a general framework for measuring biases in expectation formation. The method is based on the insight that biases can be inferred from the response of forecast errors to past news. Empirically, biases are measured by flexibly estimating the impulse response function of forecast...

We experimentally investigate how price expectations are formed in a large asset market where subjects' only task is to forecast the future price of a risky asset. The realized prices depend on these expectations. We observe small (6 participants) and large markets (about 100 participants). In...

We construct a new measure that captures the disparity between the market reaction to earnings information and the earnings surprise ("Return-Earnings Gap", "REG"). High REG scores positively predict analyst forecast errors and firm mispricing (overvaluation) scores, especially for build-up...