In line with Keynes' intuition, volatility in the stock market and in real economic activity are linked by expectations … years later. Overreaction of measured long term profit expectations emerges as a promising mechanism for reconciling Shiller …

: the "expected" inflation-output volatility frontier shifts downward, thereby lowering both the volatilities of inflation … and output for all possible policy choices. The trade-off between the expected volatility of inflation and that of output …

mostly because of revisions to expectations about short-term interest rates. Changes in risk premia are also sizable, partly … offset the effects of short-rate expectations and help to account for the hump-shaped pattern across maturities. Most … announcement responses are due to changes in expectations about the output gap …

mostly because of revisions to expectations about short-term interest rates. Changes in risk premia are also sizable, partly … offset the effects of short-rate expectations and help to account for the hump-shaped pattern across maturities. Most … announcement responses are due to changes in expectations about the output gap …

funded program destined unemployment compensation (Fundo de Garantia por Tempo de Servico--FGTS), comparing its obtained … returns to inflation (as measured by the General Price Index (IGP-DI) and to savings accounts' returns. The conclusion is that …