Lycheva, Maria; Mironenkov, Alexey; Kurbatskii, Alexey; … - 2023
This paper investigates whether augmenting models with the variance risk premium (VRP) and Google search data improves the quality of the forecasts for real oil prices. We considered a time sample of monthly data from 2007 to 2019 that includes several episodes of high volatility in the oil...