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This chapter presents historical evidence about Swedish stock prices, dividends, and yields on government fixed-interest securities. Monthly returns are presented since 1901 for stocks, since 1874 for government long-term bonds and since 1856 for short-term Treasury bills or central bank...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010360953
This chapter presents historical evidence about Swedish stock prices, dividends, and yields on government fixed-interest securities. Monthly returns are presented since 1901 for stocks, since 1874 for government long-term bonds and since 1856 for short-term Treasury bills or central bank...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010391440
We examine whether the predictability and business-cycle dependence of excess returns in US Treasuries can be more naturally explained in terms of state-dependent risk premia or a specific cognitive bias (representativeness). We show that the extremely parsimonious cognitive-bias model in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012893290
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011957124
Pricing bonds is generally one of the earliest applications of time value of money in a finance curriculum. A bond … security. This paper works through the pedagogy of bond pricing and extends the traditional bond pricing formula in a manner … about bond pricing and the time value of money …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013104140
development of bond yields and spreads around these releases. More precisely, we try to estimate different asset price channels by … signalling channel, measured by the OIS rate, and the portfolio rebalancing channel, proxied by the conditional bond-OIS spread …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011743065
depend on the type and nature of the surprise and change over time. Decomposing bond yields into expected short-term interest … rates and the term premium reveals that both signalling and portfolio rebalancing effects explain the responses of bond … important to Swiss government bond yields than Swiss stock prices …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013492717
In their seminal paper on bond fund performance, Blake, Elton and Gruber (1993) state that survivorship bias is … unimportant for this market segment. Many bond fund studies have since been published without treating survivorship bias despite … disappearance of bond funds comprehensively. As key determinants we identify fund size and flows. Compared to equity funds, returns …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013114608
Carry trade strategies in which investors sell forward currencies that are at a forward premium and buy forward currencies that are at a forward discount are, on average, profitable. According to the uncovered interest rate parity they should not. A risk premia story might justify the high...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013105027
We extract cycles from the term spread and study their role for predicting the equity premium using linear models. When properly extracted, the trend of the term spread is a strong and robust out-of-sample equity premium predictor, both from a statistical and an economic point of view. It...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012865561