This paper investigates whether augmenting models with the variance risk premium (VRP) and Google search data improves the quality of the forecasts for real oil prices. We considered a time sample of monthly data from 2007 to 2019 that includes several episodes of high volatility in the oil...

In assessing drivers of commodity prices and volatility at this stage of the current super-cycle in commodities (year 12 of a projected 25), it is vital to understand that production cost is a fundamental. Moreover, marginal production costs are among the most powerful drivers of commodity...

In this paper we develop a general framework to analyze state space models with time-varying system matrices where time variation is driven by the score of the conditional likelihood. We derive a new filter that allows for the simultaneous estimation of the state vector and of the time-varying...

In this research paper ARCH-type models and option implied volatilities (IV) are applied in order to estimate the Value-at-Risk (VaR) of a stock index futures portfolio for several time horizons. The relevance of the asymmetries in the estimated volatility estimation is considered. The empirical...

In this paper we develop a general framework to analyze state space models with timevarying system matrices where time variation is driven by the score of the conditional likelihood. We derive a new filter that allows for the simultaneous estimation of the state vector and of the time-varying...

This paper examines the long-run relationship between goods prices and stock prices to understand whether stock market investment can help hedge against inflation in the United States (US) and Canada. This study employed an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) cointegration test developed by...

If an asymmetric relation exists between the prices of gold and gold mining stocks, then these firms possess real option characteristics, and therefore, a premium should be added to their valuation. This article examines this proposition, by firstly, using quantile regressions, which are ideally...

In this work, an investigation and analysis are carried out in order to observe the relationship between ethanol spot and futures prices in Brazil. We adopted the Engle and Granger co-integration approach. Also, we consider the information share method proposed by Hasbrouck in order to examine...

This study focused on the impact of crude oil, crude palm oil spot and futures of prices on African equity markets. It draws on daily data from January 2000 till July 2013, obtained from Bloomberg. The study employed Vector Error Correction (VEC). Findings from the econometric analysis show that...

The dividend payout problem in literature has largely been misspecified. The roles of dividends as signals, agency cost reducers, fixed income providers or even the invariance of dividend payouts are all phenomenon that, based on market conditions, follow from the role of dividends as equalizers...