We show in a simple framework that momentum trading can exist in equilibrium and momentum trading is profitable. Properties of the model fit the empirics well. First, the model captures in a parsimonious manner both short-term overreaction and long-term reversals. Second, it predicts that...

We discover that letting agents pairwise sequentially exchange at "wrong" prices has a robust effect on prices at convergence. If the initial relative price for a good is cheaper than the equilibrium walrasian price due to initial endowments, the initial excess demand effect pushes resource...

This paper presents a Heterogeneous Agent Model of a financial market with chartist and fundamentalist traders that exhibit bounded rationality and short-term thinking to explain the effect of under and overreaction to news. The existence of the Market Maker's finite price adjustment speed leads...

A discrete-time dynamic asset-pricing model specifies the economic rationale for a rich array of price dynamics. Two boundedly-rational investors with different risk preferences trade periodically, where excess supply is cleared by a tâtonnement. Cast at the core of asset-pricing modelling,...

We introduce a heterogeneous agent asset pricing model in continuous-time to show that trend chasing, switching and herding all contribute to market volatility in price and return and volatility clustering, but their impact are different. On the one hand, the fluctuations of market price and...

We estimate a dynamic asset pricing model characterized by heterogeneous boundedly rational agents. The fundamental value of the risky asset is publicly available to all agents, but they have different beliefs about the persistence of deviations of stock prices from the fundamental benchmark. An...

An alternative derivation of the yield curve based on entropy or the loss of information as it is communicated through time is introduced. Given this focus on entropy growth in communication the Shannon entropy will be utilized. Additionally, Shannon entropy's close relationship to the...

It is widely agreed that the Nasdaq during the dot-com era 20 years ago was a full-fledged stock market bubble. Recently, the US stock market according to many metrics has become significantly more speculative and overvalued than it was at the dot-com peak 20 years ago. In both instances, a very...

In assessing drivers of commodity prices and volatility at this stage of the current super-cycle in commodities (year 12 of a projected 25), it is vital to understand that production cost is a fundamental. Moreover, marginal production costs are among the most powerful drivers of commodity...

Standard economic theory presumes invariant preferences. We refute this presumption on chronobiological grounds, documenting seasonal affective impact on investors' demand for Initial Public Offerings (IPOs). We find that seasonal mood substantially influences short-, mid-, and long-run IPO...