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We analyze the contribution of credit spread, house and stock price shocks to GDP growth in the US based on a Bayesian VAR with time-varying parameters estimated over 1958-2012. Our main findings are: (i) The contribution of financial shocks to GDP growth fluctuates from about 20 percent in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012988788
We analyze the contribution of credit spread, house and stock price shocks to GDP growth in the US based on a Bayesian VAR with time-varying parameters estimated over 1958-2012. Our main findings are: (i) The contribution of financial shocks to GDP growth fluctuates from about 20 percent in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009739598
1980. Over the period 1955-1979 an expansionary spending or revenue shock was associated with modestly higher stock prices …. After 1980, along with a decline in the fiscal multiplier, the response of stock prices to the same shock became negative …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011887044
. In addition to explaining over 70% of the housing bubble in the United States, the model also predicts and estimation … turnover, a supply shock is identified and estimated that has been responsible for over 80% of the fall in real house prices …
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