This paper investigates the effect of credit risk on the return of stocks. We construct a systematic factor in relation to credit risk using the credit spreads of individual firms measured from the Merton (1974) model. This enables us to include firms without credit spreads or ratings...

Using a structural model of default, we construct a measure of systemic default defined as the probability that many firms default at the same time. We account for correlations in defaults between firms through exposures to common shocks. The systemic default measure spikes during recession...

This study provides a rigorous empirical comparison of structural and reduced-form credit risk frameworks. As major difference we focus on the discriminative modeling of default time. In contrast to previous literature, we calibrate both approaches to bond and equity prices. By using same input...