Until recently, economists widely believed that economic activity had become less variable in the United States following the end of World War II. Challenging this belief, new research suggests that key historical time series are spuriously volatile, a finding that is highly controversial. Data...

Much of James Tobin's professional life has been devoted to studying the interrelationship between the goods and financial markets. His general equilibrium approaches stresses the interaction of the demand for financial assets with the decision to accumulate productive capital. His emphasis on...

This paper presents and implements statistical tests of stock market forecastability and volatility that are immune from the severe statistical problems of earlier tests. Although the null hypothesis of strict market efficiency is rejected, the evidence against the hypothesis is not...