This paper presents a multisector general equilibrium model that is capable of providing integrated assessments of the economy's short- and long- run responses to tax policy changes. The model contains an explicit treatment of firm's investment decisions according to which producers exhibit...

A linearization of a rational expectations present value model for corporate stock prices produces a simple relation between the log dividend-price ratio and mathematical expectations of future log real dividend changes and future real discount rates. This relation can be tested using vector...

Windfall profits and losses accrue to investors only when expected after-tax returns or discount rates change, and major tax policy shifts are likely to alter these variables. This study introduces a cashflow valuation model for estimating the windfalls to owners of U.S. nonfinancial...

The set of parameters needed to calculate the expected present discounted value of a stream of dividends can be estimated in two ways. One may test for speculative bubbles, or fads, by testing whether the two estimates are the same. When the test is applied to some annual U.S. stock market data,...

The very low real interest rates on bonds in the 1970's were accompanied by a large drop in the value of common stocks relative to dividends and earnings. More generally, a number of authors have demonstrated that the real prices of debt and equity claims do not covary closely, and often move in...

A simple model of equity pricing is developed to address two related questions. First, to what extent can unanticipated changes in such"fundamental" variables as profitability, real interest rates, inflation, and the variance of returns account for the observed behavior of the stockmarket?...

This paper examines the time series properties of the price of a risky asset implied by a model in which competitive traders are heterogeneously informed about the underlying sources of uncertainty in the economy.Traders do not observe the shocks in the period they occur. However, traders are...

In a model where a variable Y[sub t] is proportional to the present value, with constant discount rate, of expected future values of a variable y[sub t] the "spread" S[sub t]= Y[sub t] - [theta sub t] will be stationary for some [theta] whether or not y[sub t]must be differenced to induce...

Evidence of excess volatilities of asset prices compared with those of market fundamentals is often attributed to speculative bubbles. This study examines the sense in which speculative bubbles could in theory lead to excess volatility, hut it demonstrates that some of the variance hounds...