This paper suggests a new approach to evaluate realized covariance (RCOV) estimators via their predictive power on return density. By jointly modeling returns and RCOV measures under a Bayesian framework, the predictive density of returns and ex-post covariance measures are bridged. The forecast...

Forecasting stock market movements is a challenging task from the practitioners' point of view. We explore how model selection via the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) approach can be better used to forecast stock closing prices using real-world datasets of daily stock...