Fat tails of q-Gaussian distributions of daily log-leverage-returns of 520 North American industrial firms reported by Katz and Tian (2013) imply a significantly higher credit risk at short time-horizons and/or large initial distances to the default barrier than forecasted by traditional...

Purpose: The purpose of the study is to examine the dynamics in the troika of asset pricing, volatility, and the business cycle in the US and Japan.Design/methodology/approach: The study uses a six-factor asset pricing model to derive the realized volatility measure for the GARCH-type...

We show that a business-cycle component of consumption growth (dubbed business-cycle consumption) with cycles between 2 and 4 years is effective in explaining the differences in risk premia across alternative test assets, including recently-proposed anomaly portfolios. We formalize the mapping...

Standard economic intuition suggests that asset prices are more sensitive to news than other economic aggregates. This has led many researchers to conclude that asset price data would be very useful for the estimation of business cycle models containing news shocks. This paper shows how to...

Using U.S. data from 1926 to 2015, I show that financial skewness?a measure comparing cross-sectional upside and downside risks of the distribution of stock market returns of financial firms?is a powerful predictor of business cycle fluctuations. I then show that shocks to financial skewness are...

The log realized volatility (RV) is often modeled as an autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average model (ARFIMA(1,d,0)). Two conflicting empirical results have been found in the literature. One stream shows that log RV has a long memory (i.e., the fractional parameter d0). The other...

We perform a comprehensive examination of the recursive, comparative predictive performance of a number of linear and non-linear models for UK stock and bond returns. We estimate Markov switching, threshold autoregressive (TAR), and smooth transition autoregressive (STR) regime switching models,...

We offer improved dating of U.S. business cycle turning points both retrospectively and in real time. This improvement is made possible by augmenting existing Markov-switching dynamic factor models with additional information on stock return volatility. The model significantly improves...

We perform a comprehensive examination of the recursive, comparative predictive performance of a number of linear and non-linear models for UK stock and bond returns. We estimate Markov switching, threshold autoregressive (TAR), and smooth transition autoregressive (STR) regime switching models,...