You're probably familiar, at least in passing, with the 'convexity' of long-term bonds - i.e. that yields dropping 1% produce a bigger price move than yields rising 1%. A significant amount of brainpower has gone into understanding all the ramifications of this convexity in the fixed income...

We show that log-dividends (d) and log-prices (p) are cointegrated, but, instead of de facto assuming the stationarity of the classical log dividend–price ratio, we allow the data to reveal the cointegration vector between d and p. We define the modified dividend–price ratio (mdp), as the...

The CAPM is commonly used for an introduction of the equity cost in practice to calculate the corporate value, which is composed by the risk-free rate, equity market return and each respective beta. However, there is a fundamental complication between the risk, cost and return for the equity...

We propose a new, price-based measure of information risk called abnormal idiosyncratic volatility (AIV) that captures information asymmetry faced by uninformed investors. AIV is the idiosyncratic volatility prior to information events in excess of normal levels. Using earnings announcements as...

When Bayesian risk-averse investors are uncertain about their assets' cash flows' exposure to systematic risk, stock prices react more to news in downturns than in upturns, implying higher volatility in downturns and negatively skewed returns. The reason is that, in good times, less desirable...

I investigate whether or not the multi-period trades of financial institutions cause mispricing in the stock market. After controlling for the magnitude and trends in institutional trades, I find evidence consistent with institutional trades pushing prices away from fundamentals. Stocks heavily...

I introduce a method for gauging the qualitative similarity of firm-specific information based on linguistic commonality in newswire text. I show that this new qualitative similarity measure predicts future cross-firm return correlation even after accounting for the pair's contemporaneous price...

In this short note, we show investors one way to calculate ideal investment sizing by using two rules of thumb based on a simple outline of individual risk aversion. We illustrate these two heuristics, which are not widely appreciated, with thought experiments involving coin flips and ketchup &...

Using proprietary data on millions of trades by retail investors, we provide the first large-scale evidence that retail short selling predicts negative stock returns. A portfolio that mimics weekly retail shorting earns an annualized risk-adjusted return of 9%. The predictive ability of retail...

Rank-and-file employees are becoming increasingly critical for many firms, yet we know little about how their employment dynamics matter for stock prices. We analyze new data from the individual CV's of public company employees, and find that rank-and-file labor flows can be used to predict...