We extend the double-well potential process to a three-parameter version in order to model intraday price dynamics, with a focus on the intraday momentum and reversal. The proposed process has a parsimonious form of three parameters controlling momentum, reversal, and volatility respectively. By...

In 2016, Eugene Fama mentioned that he wanted a systematic way of identifying and predicting a stock market bubble. This paper develops a simple statistical method to sequentially monitor the stock market price changes. A new and simple boundary function is proposed, and asymptotic properties...