We propose a nonparametric Bayesian approach for the estimation of the pricing kernel. Historical stock returns and option market data are combined through the Dirichlet Process (DP) to construct an option-adjusted physical measure. The precision parameter of the DP process is calibrated to the...

In this paper, we present a 1-period model of the Polish financial market from the view point of KGHM, the Polish largest listed company that suffered huge declines in share prices from 125 PLN in August 2015 to 60 PLN in January 2015. Our goal is to show how KGHM might create a portfolio (with...

We study both theoretically and empirically option prices on firms undergoing a cash merger offer. To estimate the merger's success probability, we use a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method using a state space representation of our model. Our estimated probability measure has significant...