We study whether prices of traded options contain information about future extreme market events. Our option-implied conditional expectation of market loss due to tail events, or tail loss measure, predicts future market returns, magnitude, and probability of the market crashes, beyond and above...

We merge the literature on downside return risk and liquidity risk and introduce the concept of extreme downside liquidity (EDL) risks. The cross-section of stock returns reflects a premium if a stock's return (liquidity) is lowest at the same time when the market liquidity (return) is lowest....

This study aimed to predict the JKII (Jakarta Islamic Index) price as a price index of sharia stocks and predict the loss risk. This study uses geometric Brownian motion (GBM) and Value at Risk (VaR; with the Monte Carlo Simulation approach) on the daily closing price of JKII from 1 August...

Risk estimation or volatility estimation at financial markets, particularly stock exchange markets, is complex issue of great importance to theorists and practitioners. Models used to estimate volatility forecasts are translated into better pricing of stocks and better risk management. The aim...

This paper investigates the extent to which voluntary disclosure quality (VDQ) of firms is reflected in equity prices. As a novel contribution, we explore the idea that the speed with which equity prices reflect any benefits or costs of VDQ varies across firms. We find that in environments where...

Fund trades and prices vary systematically with the quarterly reporting cycle. Funds are more likely to complete the building of a position at quarter-end, which is when most funds report positions to investors, and begin building new positions afterwards. While some of the observed shift in...

Disagreement about stock valuation, combined with short-sales constraints, can increase asset prices. We build a model showing that, so long as investor beliefs are not perfectly correlated, investors will disagree less about the value of a conglomerate than about each of its individual...

The capability of momentum investment strategy was explore through portfolio risk reduction by value at risk method at liquid stock collection in Indonesia stock exchange period 2008-2016. The result show for quarterly and semester period winner portfolio has superior capacity of portfolio risk...

Using data for three publicly quoted firms, all of whom operate within the upstream oil industry, this study provides evidence for feasibility of incidence of contradictions (`contradictions of ranking') between a ranking of fundamental valuations, and corresponding ranking of market valuations....