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Bubbles, crashes and information contagion in large-group asset market experiments
Hommes, Cars H.; Kopányi-Peuker, Anita; Sonnemans, Joep - 2019
We experimentally investigate how price expectations are formed in a large asset market where subjects' only task is to forecast the future price of a risky asset. The realized prices depend on these expectations. We observe small (6 participants) and large markets (about 100 participants). In...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011979625
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Rational Belief Bubbles
Sohn, H. - 2018
We propose an extension of the class of rational expectations bubbles (REBs) to the more general rational beliefs setting of Kurz (1994a,b). In a potentially non-stationary but stationarizable environment, it is possible to hold more than one (small-r) “rational” expectation. When rational...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012919580
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Konsistentes adaptives Lernen in Finanzmarkt- und Makromodellen
Schönhofer, Martin - 1997
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10000963628
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Konsistentes adaptives Lernen in Finanzmarkt- und Makromodellen
Schönhofer, Martin - 1997
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012699468
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Structural Uncertainty, Learning, and Asset Pricing
Gvozdeva, Evgenia - 2010
a parsimonious set of prior parameters, the model generates a sizeable equity premium and a low risk-free rate even with … a power utility function, low risk aversion, and absence of persistence in growth rates. Raising the prior uncertainty … on consumption growth induces a "flight to safety" that results in lower risk-free rates, higher equity premium, and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013150931
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Learning from prices : information aggregation and accumulation in an asset price model
Berardi, Michele - 2020
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012793402
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Learning from prices : information aggregation and accumulation in an asset market
Berardi, Michele - In: Annals of finance 17 (2021) 1, pp. 45-77
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012489937
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Rational belief bubbles
Sohn, Hyun-U; Sornette, Didier - 2020
We propose an extension of the class of rational expectations bubbles (REBs) to the more general rational beliefs setting of Kurz (1994a,b). In a potentially non-stationary but stationarizable environment, among an heterogenous population of agents, it is possible to hold more than one...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012181099
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Measuring biases in expectation formation
Peters, Florian; Kucinskas, Simas - 2018
We develop a general framework for measuring biases in expectation formation. The method is based on the insight that biases can be inferred from the response of forecast errors to past news. Empirically, biases are measured by flexibly estimating the impulse response function of forecast...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011869992
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Announcements, Expectations, and Stock Returns with Asymmetric Information
Han, Leyla Jianyu - 2020
Revisions of consensus forecasts of macroeconomic variables positively predict announcement day forecast errors, whereas stock market returns on forecast revision days negatively predict announcement day returns. A dynamic noisy rational expectations model with periodic macroeconomic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012846330