An efficient market should not show any anomalies. When new information reaches a market which is efficient, it should automatically translate into prices of assets, which ought to eliminate the possibility of gaining an advantage over other investors, thus preventing excess profits. However,...

The existence of a premium to momentum portfolios, formed by buying recent winners and selling recent losers is widely accepted, although the source of the returns remains controversial. It remains a focus of behavioural finance. We focus on one set of explanations, based on prospect theory,...

In this paper we argue that momentum profits are driven by both past performance and the relative proximity to an available reference point, the 52-week high. We construct momentum-style portfolios that are driven strictly by past returns which we call ‘run' based measures, and compare these...

Using a large panel of U.S. accounts trades and positions, we show that retail investors trade as contrarians after large earnings surprises, especially for loser stocks, and such contrarian trading contributes to post earnings announcement drift (PEAD) and momentum. Indeed, when we double-sort...

This note is based on a recent confidence index introduced in the context of compensating probability factors for deviations of subjective probability measures from equivalent martingale measures. The index is adjusted for loss gain probability spreads, and it explains momentum in confidence. We...

We use the Bayesian method introduced by Gallant and McCulloch (2009) to estimate consumption-based asset pricing models featuring smooth ambiguity preferences. We rely on semi-nonparametric estimation of a flexible auxiliary model in our structural estimation. Based on the market and aggregate...

I develop a stochastic growth model with production where there is a hidden state governing productivity growth regimes, and the hidden state evolves according to a Markov chain. Economic agents learn about the hidden state and display ambiguity aversion in the spirit of Klibanoff et al. (2005)....