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Equity option markets exhibit intense trading activity. We use the variability of option implied volatility spread as a …. Over the 2006 – 2016 period, we find that the predictive power of option implied volatility spread for future stock returns … is significantly greater when implied volatility spread has been more variable in the past. Our results are statistically …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012836056
We present a new method to measure the intraday relationship between movements of implied volatility smiles and stock … evolution of volatility smiles is generally not consistent with traders' rules of thumb such as the sticky strike or sticky … delta rule. On average, the impact of index return on implied volatility is 1.3 to 1.5 times stronger than the sticky strike …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013037094
The option implied volatility spread and skew predict stock returns. These variables also reflect the expected cost of … stock returns; however, the volatility spread and skew do not once this implied fee is considered. Results are similar for a … yet in stock prices. These findings indicate that the volatility spread and skew predict returns because they proxy for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012855076
slope of option implied volatility smile. This implies a negative predictive relation between the slope of implied … volatility smile and stock return, which is strongly supported by the empirical evidence. For over 4,000 stocks ranked by slope … for stock characteristics like size, book-to-market, leverage, volatility, skewness, and volume. Furthermore, the results …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013147764
Aggregate implied volatility spread (IVS), defined as the cross-sectional average difference in the implied …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011897782
I build a price-ratio model based on the Campbell and Shiller (1988) decomposition to test which components of investor expectations best explains cross-sectional price differences. I evaluate the in- and out-of-sample performance of my model, which uses a higher-order expansion with an added...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014236440
We examine the information content of option and equity volumes when trade direction is unobserved. In a multimarket symmetric information model, we show that equity short-sale costs result in a negative relation between relative option volume and future firm value. In our empirical tests,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012857551
Purpose - This article aims to present a new strategy of portfolio selection.Design/methodology/approach - After having made a comparative survey of different strategies of portfolio selection adopted by portfolio managers in Tunisia, we propose a new strategy, which we call weighted...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013128917
The present study explores the effect of the gambler’s fallacy on stock trading volumes. I hypothesize that if a stock’s price rises (falls) during a number of consecutive trading days, then the gambler’s fallacy may cause at least some of the investors to expect that the stock’s price...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011760176
Using a novel equity lending dataset, this paper is the first to show that expected returns strongly and negatively predict future equity lending fees. In comparing two expected return measures, I find that a rational expected return has stronger predictive power of future short selling activity...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013491786