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funds and swap dealers cause price changes or volatility. We find little evidence that speculators destabilize financial … markets. To the contrary, speculative trading activity largely reacts to market conditions and reduces volatility levels …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013131702
realized volatility. The jump component has very different time series properties than the continuous component, and accounting … for this allows improved forecasting of future realized volatility. We investigate the potential forecasting role of … implied volatility backed out from option prices in the presence of these new separate realized volatility components. We show …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003795292
We develop a discrete-time affine stochastic volatility model with time-varying conditional skewness (SVS). Importantly …, we disentangle the dynamics of conditional volatility and conditional skewness in a coherent way. Our approach allows …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009309462
A rapidly growing literature has documented important improvements in volatility measurement and forecasting … provides a practical framework for non-parametrically measuring the jump component in realized volatility measurements … an easy-to-implement reduced form model for realized volatility results in highly significant jump coefficient estimates …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009764770
This paper presents an empirical investigation of scaling and multifractal properties of US Dollar–Deutschemark (USD–DEM) returns. The data set is ten years of 5-min returns. The cumulative return distributions of positive and negative tails at different time intervals are linear in the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012975255
Following recent advances in the non-parametric realized volatility approach, we separately measure the discontinuous … volatility models. We analyze the distributional properties of the jump measures vis-à-vis the corresponding realized volatility … accuracy of high-frequency volatility models …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013004411
leverage effect and the volatility feedback effect. We stress the importance of distinguishing between realized volatility and … implied volatility, and find that implied volatilities are essential for assessing the volatility feedback effect. The … leverage hypothesis asserts that return shocks lead to changes in conditional volatility, while the volatility feedback effect …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013128856
The main task of this paper is to determine accuracy of some of widely used technical analysis techniques for MBI-10 stocks price forecast at MSE. We are testing accuracy of several technical analysis techniques: MACD (Moving-Average Convergence/Divergence), RSI (Relative Strength Index),...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011780553
We estimate a general microstructure model of the transitory and permanent impact of order flow on stock prices. Jumps are detected in both the transaction price (observation equation) and fundamental value (state equation). The model's parameters and variances are updated in real time. Prices...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010256970
I examine the relative information roles among West Texas Intermediate spot crude price and four futures contracts (F1 through F4) with different maturities. Using a cointegrated system with a non-unitary cointegrating vector, I address price discovery by investigating which price is more...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013114634